Building future scenarios based on key uncertainties

In September, WOAH launched a participatory foresight project to spark curiosity and insight around changes affecting animal health and welfare, drawn from a horizon-scanning exercise. Now, with these findings, the project enters its next phase: building scenarios based on key uncertainties. 

Foresight tools and methods are numerous, offering diverse applications to envisage, anticipate, and navigate the transition from today to tomorrow. Some tools, such as Futures Wheels, are beautifully simple, requiring no expert facilitator; individuals can use a pen and paper to map out the immediate consequences of a change and its subsequent impacts. 

However, certain scenario methods aimed at envisioning multiple future possibilities demand skilled foresight practitioners to steer the process. In November, the project’s scenario building phase employed the Mānoa approach, pioneered by the accomplished Dr Wendy Schultz, a key figure in the project’s workshop series. This innovative approach blends the simplicity of three Futures Wheels, fostering creative exploration of how changes intertwine and influence one another. 

Painting a picture of a different tomorrow

Encouraged to unleash their creativity, participants vividly detailed the cascading impacts of three distinct changes, painting a picture of a different tomorrow. They were prompted to envisage the collisions between these impacts, pondering questions such as: What does this envisioned future hold for Veterinary Services? What extreme crises might arise in animal health and welfare? How might human-animal relationships undergo profound shifts? What role does WOAH play in this envisioned future? 

Responding with enthusiasm, participants generated exciting possibilities, providing rich material for the project’s foresight practitioners to craft multiple alternative futures. These will be utilised in phase three to draft innovative strategies. 

In the realm of foresight methods, it is crucial to recognise that there are no absolute right, wrong – or even ridiculous – ideas. These tools are not algorithms for generating answers; rather, they serve as means to uncover blind spots, challenge linear thinking, and reassess assumptions about the present and the future. 

The power of a foresight practice

Although numerous challenges may seem beyond our control, nudging us towards an inevitable future, it is vital to acknowledge that the future is not predetermined. By exploring potential impacts colliding with one another, a multitude of futures emerges, each holding the potential for realisation. This inherent uncertainty broadens the scope of decisions and pathways forward, making anything possible – therein lies the power of a foresight practice.

Contact: Tianna Brand, WOAH Foresight Advisor