In foresight processes, planning scenarios is an integral part of considering how current and emerging changes may unfold. Through the process of planning scenarios, we use information – trends, issues, events, data – we notice as well as our imagination to describe alternative futures.  Once the scenarios are in hand, the question we may ask is, ‘Now what do we do with these alternative futures?’ 

Too often scenarios sit in the cloud adding to CO₂ emissions or if printed, on a shelf collecting dust. As Thomas J. Chermack, Director of the Scenario Planning Institute and Professor of Organisational Learning, Performance and Change at Colorado State University, noted in his practical book on using scenarios, ‘Scenario planners often say that one-third of the time should be spent creating scenarios and two-thirds of the time should be spent on using them.’^[1]  He also explains that while there is plenty of guidance on planning scenarios, ‘there is no practical guidance on what to do with scenarios once you have them.’ 

In the domain of strategic foresight, as scenarios are designed with uncertainty in mind, they can be used to create and stress-test strategic plans, as well as to test decisions and options.  These two approaches to using scenarios are amongst the seven outlined in Chermack’s book:

1. 1. Connecting scenarios to a purpose
   2. Generating strategies
   3. Creating and stress-testing strategic plans with scenarios
   4. Testing decisions and options with scenarios
   5. Assessing the financial benefits of scenarios
   6. Modeling financials with scenarios
   7. Developing scenario signals and critical uncertainty dashboards

Developing scenario signals

While each of these approaches has different outcomes, our attention here turns to the last one –developing scenario signals – which is meant to attune people to changes across the categories of STEEP (socio-cultural, technological, environmental, economic and political).

Consider the scenario from WOAH’s first Futures Literacy Laboratory  on ‘Climate Responses, 2040’ where humans are ‘tamed’ by animals who are both conscious of human impact on the environment and concerned about human survival. The general reaction to such a scenario is that it is too far-fetched to be true; however, scenarios are themselves signals of change. And they are not predictions; they do not need to be realistic as they are meant to disrupt linear, deterministic assumptions about the future.

From the above scenario we can create a scenario signal table. To do this, we collect ‘signals’ that represent the scenario from various sources, such as mainstream, alternative and social media articles, scientific journals, blogs, vlogs. By systematically scanning the external environment for changes that represent the scenario we can monitor and question how emerging change may affect the future. In other words, the scenario is being reverse engineered. Figure 1 below, is an example of signals of change in human and animal relations in social and technological categories representing the scenario.

Figure 1: Scenario signal table

A scenario where animals ‘are in charge’ may not inspire a process for strategy development. However, scenario signal tables do allow for a more accessible way of understanding change – no matter how far-fetched the scenario seems today.  Specifically, this Futures Literacy scenario challenged our assumptions on how we relate to animals, and how we can view WOAH’s work in animal health and welfare from animals’ perspectives.  Moreover, technology may also help us understand the perspectives of animals on climate change, as it enables us to communicate with them more easily. As societal values shift, and we care more about the environment, this Futures scenario might not be so unbelievable after all. The signals above clearly show how our relationships with animals are evolving and provide food for thought to WOAH and its Members.

Photo: Lila and Balthazar ©WOAH/T. Brand

[1] Chermack, Thomas J ’Using Scenarios, Scenario Planning Improving Organisations’, First Edition. ISBN 9781523092888 (paperback). Chapter 1. What do you do with scenarios? Page 4, Part 1 Exploring the use of Scenarios.