It is all well and good to have a set of foresight scenarios depicting multiple alternative futures, but if they are not used, what is the point of having them? This article will focus on the final workshops of the 100th-anniversary participatory foresight project, where participants delved into one of many uses for foresight scenarios.

Scenarios are a foresight tool meant to offer a creative and critical thinking space for various purposes, including contingency planning and innovative strategy formulation. Exploring alternative futures contributes to shaping our actions today in anticipation of what lies ahead.

What possibly lies ahead for animal health and welfare?

To partially answer this question, we need to ask another: How might the changes, trends and other factors we see today evolve and impact animals and welfare?

While it is a simple focusing question for developing scenarios, it is a question that opens up a lot of possibilities. During the course of the foresight project, hundreds of factors representing political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal changes that could both directly and indirectly impact animal health and welfare were collected and prioritised. Therefore, anything is possible!

In November 2023, participants in the project got some hands-on experience in scenario building using the Mānoa approach.  The resulting scenarios are summarised as follows:

1. Eco-revolution Rising: the impacts of human-caused climate change and unchecked biotechnology challenges to animal health and welfare, global governance and international organisations.

2. In WOAH We Trust: social media messages about quality and safety of food from high-profile but often slanted sources erode public trust in science and global institutions.

3. Hangry Games: International animal and food trade collapse. Artificial intelligence becomes central to addressing animal health and welfare challenges in some parts of the globe.

4. Animal Health from the Bottom of the Oceans to the Stars: Technological developments in terrestrial and aqua farming intersect with the growing space industry, leading to the first off-planet satellite farms.

5. Farming for Resilience: Animal farming practices further diversify from small-scale cooperatives to urbanite lifestyle ventures to robot-led farming. While the dark side of science releases multi-species ‘superbugs’ upon the world.

Projecting ourselves into these futures

All of these futures pose challenges for national Veterinary Services and WOAH. As we project ourselves into these futures, what are we doing to adapt, thrive or mitigate impacts? What new resources and knowledge are required? Who needs to be a part of the network or community?

In line with the original objectives of the foresight project, the series of workshops were designed as capacity-building opportunities in the use of foresight methods while cultivating situational awareness of existing and/or emerging changes, opportunities or disruptions. With this in mind, the workshops were focused more on learning rather than formal strategy creation.  However, pertinent and insightful ideas emerged that shed light on the current scope of WOAH’s mandate, expert base, capabilities and governance structures.

Is WOAH ready for the future?

As a result, three out of the five scenarios mentioned above will be employed to inspire and provoke conversations around the review of WOAH’s Basic Texts at the General Session Forum, entitled ‘Is WOAH Ready for the Future?’.  

In a rapidly fluctuating world, WOAH needs to be adaptable and capable of responding to present and emerging complexities, recognising challenges and opportunities that contribute to organisational resilience. With this in mind, the Forum aims to immerse the Assembly and their delegations as well as the next generation of potential WOAH delegates in possible futures to explore impacts and implications for the Organisation.

Contact: Tianna Brand (t.brand@woah.org), Foresight Advisor